Price relationships in Philippine milkfish markets: Univariate and causality analysis

Abstract

Uncertainties and lack of information on milkfish product prices, along with production-related problems with inputs, generally constrain efficient resource use in milkfish grow-out operations. Milkfish growers complain of fluctuating product prices such that when output price is low, they refrain from investing in inputs and technologies recommended to boosts production. The industry wants to know the state and behavior of milkfish prices. ARIMA models showed instantaneous price relationships between monthly wholesale prices in Manila and the regional producing areas. The cross-correlations of the error terms of the ARIMA models showed that prices in Manila are related with Lucena, Dagupan, Iloilo, and Zamboanga prices, but not with Cebu. Seasonal price indexes are higher (> 1) from December to May and lower (< 1) from June to November. Milkfish grow-out operators may benefit from understanding these patterns of price movements.